The Headline

Pop-up A/B went live May 14. New customer acquisition is up sharply while paid spend is down — blended NC CPA dropped 40%.

Revenue Mix — New vs Returning

Bar width = total revenue, segments = NC (blue) and Returning (grey). Total revenue is up 61.2% — driven by shifting returning revenue — but NC's share of the pie is bigger.

New Customer Orders by Channel

Triple Whale linearAll. Klaviyo is the story — pop-up + welcome flow are now contributing meaningful NC volume.

NC CPA by Channel

What each paid channel costs per new customer (channel spend ÷ TW-attributed NC orders). Meta and Google held flat; the blended improvement comes from Klaviyo orders being effectively free.

Pop-up A/B Test — £5 Off vs Starter Pack

The pop-up is running the same A/B test as the welcome flow: £5 off vs Starter Pack push. Klaviyo is splitting traffic between the two variants across both the sitewide newsletter pop-up and a separate version that targets the Ocean / Sea-Salt product page. The A/B variants went live May 14 (27 days of data). Submit rate = submits ÷ views.

The Ocean-page-targeted pop-up (forms YARErD mobile and Rtb8ye desktop) is a separate set of forms that only fires on the Sea Salt / Ocean product page. It runs the same £5 vs Starter A/B and has low traffic on its own, so it is rolled into the device totals above.

Opt-in rate over time — £5 off vs Starter Pack

Daily submit rate (submits ÷ views) per A/B arm, all forms combined. Dashed line marks A/B launch (May 14).

Pop-up → New Customer funnel

Welcome Flow A/B — £5 Off vs Starter Pack Push

Flow QVnbAQ: same A/B test as the pop-up. The £5 arm pushes a £5-off welcome discount; the Starter Pack arm pushes the Refillable Starter Pack as the entry product. Each arm has 7 messages (5 emails + 2 SMS). The £5 arm includes an extra "discount expires" reminder pair.

"You're in 💫" — first welcome email head-to-head

The single most-important email in the flow. The £5 arm wins on per-recipient revenue and conversion rate; the Starter arm has slightly higher open rate but converts fewer per recipient.

Welcome flow trends — £5 off vs Starter Pack arm

Each arm tracked separately. Daily entrants is raw daily volume; revenue per entrant and conversion rate are cumulative (running totals) so small-sample days don't distort the trend.

Reading the Result

• Blended NC CPA is down £39 (-40%). That's the headline, and it tracks 1:1 with Klaviyo's NC contribution jumping from 13 orders to 52.
• Meta paid NC efficiency held flat (£107 vs £193 NC CPA). The improvement is entirely from Klaviyo, not from Meta or Google getting cheaper.
• Total revenue is up 61.2% — almost entirely from higher returning revenue. This is a subscription billing-cycle artefact, not a problem. Watch for it to snap back next window.
• Pop-up A/B: Starter Pack is leading on mobile (9.53% vs 8.41% for £5) and on desktop (8.69% vs 6.27% for £5). 27 days in — starting to firm up but keep watching.
• Welcome flow: £5 arm is leading on per-recipient revenue (£14.80 vs £11.93). Same on the "You're in 💫" first email. Interesting tension with the pop-up — Starter Pack is winning on sign-ups, £5 is winning on what those sign-ups buy.

What's Next

• Let the pop-up A/B run another 7-10 days. The Starter Pack sign-up lift is real but the welcome-flow conversion picture matters more than the form-level rate.
• £66 blended NC CPA at recent spring LTV (~£150) puts new-customer payback at ~2.3x without any subscription conversion — real headroom to scale spend.
• Watch returning revenue next window for the expected subscription cycle recovery.
• Welcome flow: £5 arm is winning so far on £/recipient. Plan to call the winner once we have another week of data — but cross-check against the pop-up A/B so we're optimizing the combined funnel, not each step in isolation.

Sources: Shopify Orders (NC by customer.created_at), Triple Whale linearAll, Meta Marketing API, Google Ads API v20, Klaviyo Forms API + flow-values-reports. Window: 2026-05-09 → 2026-06-09 vs 2026-04-20 → 2026-05-08. Generated 2026-06-10.